Workshop: SPS Risk Analysis and Modelling

Capacity Building for Risk Analysis and Modeling

to Promote Agricultural Trade in India

July 23 - August 3, 2007

Hyderabad, India

Agenda

WEEK #1

DAY 2 Tuesday  July 24, 2007

	Instructors: R. Fite, T. Habtemariam, B. Tameru, R. McDowell, S. T. Wilson, V. Robnett, D. Nganwa
8:00 am - 12:00 Noon	R. Fite, R. McDowell What is Risk Analysis? Why is it important? Definition of terms: The Risk Triplet Decision-making with imperfect data and uncertainty Uncertainty and variability Quantitative and qualitative risk assessments Expert opinion in Risk Assessments
Noon   - 1:30 pm	LUNCH BREAK
1:30 pm - 3:00 pm	T. Habtemariam, S. Wilson, V. Robnett, D. Nganwa Two key disciplines (prerequisites) that support Sciencebased Risk assessments (Epidemiology and Biostatistics) Case Study: The Epidemiologic Framework to Risk Analysis (module 1) Decision Making and Problem Solving (Module 2, 10) Basic Concepts of population dynamics and interactions Multiple determinants and multiple causality Disease/risk agent transmission pathways Epidemiologic Surveillance Systems, Surveys and Link with Risk Analysis Epidemiologic Risk Analysis (link with food safety risk assessments) Relative risks, Odds ratio, Attributable risks
3:00 pm - 3:15 pm	BREAK
3:15 pm - 5:00 pm	Data needs and evidence gathering Diagnostic laboratories and link with Risk Assessments • Diagnostic Test Systems and their use in surveillance and surveys • Use of 2X2 tables in evaluating test systems (sensitivity, specificity, false positives, false negatives and the impact of false positives and false negative test results on risk assessments) Introduction to the binomial distribution and sampling

 

Assignments: 2 by 2 Tables
Case Study to review: Identify Epidemiologic Problem Oriented
Approach (EPOA) components, and links between Epidemiology
and Risk Assessments

 

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