Workshop: SPS Risk Analysis and Modelling

Capacity Building for Risk Analysis and Modeling

to Promote Agricultural Trade in India

July 23 - August 3, 2007

Hyderabad, India

Agenda

WEEK #1

DAY 5 Friday   July 27, 2007

	Instructors: B. Tameru, R. McDowell, R. Fite, D. Nganwa
8:00 am - Noon	Note: Breaks of 15 minutes in the morning and afternoon as appropriate Developing of Risk Assessment Models Using @Risk and Analysis of Results Animal Health Risk Assessments (Import/Export RA) Case studies: Animal health (Import/export) Qualitative Risk Assessments   (D. Nganwa) Quantitative risk Assessments   (B. Tameru, R. McDowell) Using @RISK in Probabilistic Quantitative Risk Assessments   Risk analysis and Modelling (Module 7) Data Needs in risk assessments   Evidence gathering and evidence documenting (the core of RA)   The role of Expert Opinion Parameter estimations and parameter labeling
Noon   - 1:30 pm	LUNCH BREAK
	Breakout Session for Decision Makers (R. Fite) Hands on Exercise for Technical Experts   (B. Tameru, R. McDowell, D. Nganwa) Quantitative Risk Assessments (Module 4) Risk analysis and Modelling The Pathway model (Module 7) (Event tree or scenario tree model) Probabilistic scenario analysis (Module 9) Running the simulations (Monte Carlo Simulations) Interpreting the results Sensitivity analysis Preparation of Reports for risk managers and others TEAM WORK Examples and Practical Exercises

                               

Homework: Team Assignments to Prepare Risk Assessment Projects

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