Introduction
Biological and natural systems in general are fraught with a variety of risks and hazards. The analysis of risks, either formal or informal, is therefore pervasive and indeed universal. Often, the basis for reasoning and explanation, the opportunity for dealing with risks or benefits especially in the face of uncertainties, and the need to analyze and manage imperfect data are common occurrences. The dilemma is that problem solving and decision-making must proceed in the face of uncertainties and limited data. Risk analysis composed of risk assessment; risk management and risk communication provides the tools and methods that can facilitate decision-making and management of risks. Formal risk analysis is critical in animal, plant and human health and food safety as well as in other areas such as ecological, toxicological and environmental risks. More recently the analysis of risks posed by genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has emerged as an area of concern.
Internationally, risk analysis has a direct impact on global trade. Agreements such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) require SPS regulations that are based on scientific and quantitative risk assessments. Since these are important areas of risk analysis, our Workshop will focus upon import/export risk analysis of agricultural commodities (animal and plant health risk assessment) and food safety risk assessment. The risk analysis workshop will emphasize generic methods that rely upon epidemiologic frameworks that integrate risk assessment, risk management and risk communication . We have developed and/or are developing a variety of risk analysis models for human, animal and plant diseases and pests. A variety of case studies that show how epidemiology serves as the framework for risk analysis models will be presented. The course will emphasize both stochastic (probabilistic) and deterministic modelling under-girded by sound epidemiologic concepts of population dynamics. Rigorous examination of transmission pathways of risk agents and multiple determinants that affect these interactions will be evaluated mathematically with emphasis on probability distributions. Both qualitative and quantitative aspects of risk analysis will be presented.